The year is the 2080th Global emissions have long since peaked and is already too late to stop the rise in temperature. Climate change has changed the face of the world.
Growth temperatures were first felt the poor countries and vulnerable areas such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Extreme weather such as droughts, floods and hurricanes have become frequent and severe. Sensitive people have found themselves facing a choice: adapt or face the millions of dead. At great cost to society is still adjusting. This is a picture of the world to announce what many climate experts.
At a conference on climate change, which began on Monday in Durban, scientists at the University of East Anglia warned that annual emissions of carbon dioxide reached a record $ 10 billion, an increase of 50 percent in the last two decades. These figures, presented in the journal "Nature Climate Change", cast doubt on the possibility that emissions can be reduced enough to prevent the global temperature rise of 2 ° C, which is considered critical.
Weather:
Today we can not yet say with certainty that the Earth will look like the 2080th year, however many models, based on the assumption that the average temperature rise by two degrees, no hinting just a pretty picture. According to these models, a key factor in the future life will be extreme weather conditions. The good news is that we will, if you believe the Salemulu Huku from the International Institute for Nature and Development in London, with sufficient investment, some of them still prilagoditie. For example, the 1991st major hurricane in Bangladesh caused extensive flooding and damage, and claimed around 130,000 lives. After that, the Asian country was built shelters and systems for early warning system. The next wave of the same strength hurricane death toll was about ten times smaller. Europe and North America, thanks to his wealth will be able to finance the necessary protection systems, but the price will not be small.
Food, health, conflict and sea level:
Higher temperatures will be bad for global agriculture, although it will be some areas that will benefit. Agronomists are already busily working on new strains of rice and wheat that will be able to survive despite the drought and heat waves.
Organizations such as the "Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research" helping farmers to find out that farming methods and strains for them to be satisfactory. Despite the increasingly usoj probadati and food prices will rise.
With the increase in temperature will increase and health problems like heart attacks and infectious disease. Models show that tropical diseases will extend to higher latitudes and altitudes, although many experts believe that better medical care in most regions, however, prevent the worst outcomes.
The amount of sea level rise for the time being is still a big mystery. But according to what we know, even the most terrible scenario should not occur to 2080. When it comes to estimates of the impact of global warming on the conflicts between people, expert opinions are not unique. Some believe that the number of climate change significantly increase.
Many experts believe that the deadline for reaching agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions 2015th years. Some countries, including India and the United States, trying to delay the final agreement as long as possible, and Canada has recently announced that it has no intention of participating in any document that would be inherited by the Kyoto Protocol.
Is there a cure?
What can we do if we fail to achieve the set goals? First of all, experts agree, there should not be given up by reducing emissions. Brian Hoskins from the "Imperial College" in London points out that the climate does not yet understand enough so the temperature, some luck, not grow by 2 ° C despite the increase in emissions. But Hoskins believes that at any cost should avoid a scenario in which they compared to pre-industrial increased by 4 ° C.
Finally, it is possible that we will need some form Geoengeniring.
"We will have somehow to look for ways to remove CO2," says Tim Lenton of the University of Ekster in the UK. Some countries have already started planting trees as CO2 drains, and there are prototypes of relevant technologies for sucking gases from the atmosphere. Hoskins thinks that they could become important when the end of the century will have to prevent a further increase in temperature.
